5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:32:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2024 09:22:44 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180831 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 180831 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF SARA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180830 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 91.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SARA $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180830 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 ...SARA DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 91.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Sara were located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, the remnants of Sara are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sara. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi