Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:22:57 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that some renewed convection has developed over the northern and western portions of Josephine's circulation during the past several hours. An earlier Metop-C scatterometer pass revealed a large and asymmetric wind field, with a band of 45-50 kt winds wrapping around the western side of the circulation and a radius of maximum winds near 60 n mi. Based on these data and steady trends in the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Josephine has turned toward the northeast and accelerated since the previous advisory, with the initial motion now estimated at 040/11 kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating northeastward and then east-northeastward today as a potent upper-level trough digs southeastward from Quebec toward the Canadian Maritimes and the northeastern United States. This trough is forecast to amplify and eventually close off over the northern Atlantic by early Friday. As Josephine becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the system should turn eastward on Friday and continue moving eastward through the weekend, passing well south of Newfoundland. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, with a slight leftward adjustment, reflecting a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Josephine is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics later today or by tonight as it moves over cooler waters and interacts with the approaching upper-level trough. However, some additional strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h due to baroclinic processes and a positive interaction with the advancing trough as the cyclone accelerates northeastward. The NHC forecast continues to show Josephine becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone within 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected thereafter as the system moves eastward across the North Atlantic. Global model guidance indicates that Josephine should eventually open into a trough as it becomes absorbed into a larger mid-latitude system, with dissipation expected by day 4. Given Josephine's expected extratropical transition, the NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Since the coastal wind hazards associated with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes and Josephine moves farther away from the U.S. coast over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 38.7N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 39.8N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 24H 23/0600Z 41.5N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1800Z 43.2N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z 43.9N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1800Z 44.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 43.8N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 000 FONT15 KNHC 220847 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 12(46) X(46) X(46) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 13(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 36(36) 14(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SYDNEY NS 34 X 14(14) 21(35) 5(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 88(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 1 39(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) YARMOUTH NS 34 47 9(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) ST JOHN NB 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...JOSEPHINE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 68.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected to continue into tonight. A gradual turn toward the east is forecast on Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through the day today while Josephine begins to transition to an extratropical cyclone. Josephine is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through today. See products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details. COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information. SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs

...JOSEPHINE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 22 the center of Josephine was located near 38.7, -68.3 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.